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June 2011 : Election Campaign Overwhelmed by Populist Policies
Election campaign overwhelmed by populist policies
Minimum wage increase in BMA.
Free bus-train rides continue
Outfit to commemorate HM 84th birthday
Registrating rootless persons
Alcohol causes broken homes
Thai children have no immunity against media
University graduates most unemployed
Election campaign overwhelmed by populist policies
All 5 major political parties made costly populist promises during the election campaign in which Thai Rath business reporters compiled as follow:
Democrat Party
| Policy | Est. Budget/Loss
[million Baht] | | 1 | Free electricity to households using not more than 90 units per month. | 14,400 | | 2 | Establish a special task force of 2,500 officers to tackle drugs. Daily allowance for the officers is increased by 300 Baht per day/officer. | 273 | | 3 | A 500 Baht monthly allowance to all senior citizens of 60 and above, total 6.5 million people. | 39,000 | | 4 | Public housing projects | 44,000 | | 5 | Free medical services for all | 130,000 | | 6 | A further 250,000 loan for higher education students or a total of 801,155 loans per annum. | 46,467 | | 7 | Improve 19,000 child care centers at a budget of 2 million baht each. | 38,000 | | 8 | Increase by 50 percent the profit for the agricultural price-pledging program. | 100,000 | | 9 | Increase minimum wages by 25 percent | 47,520 | | 10 | Provide community title deed to 250,000 landless people. | n.a. | | 11 | Restructure debt for 1 million people whose personal debt is under 100,000 Baht at an interest of 6%. | 6,000 | | 12 | Extend social security program to cover workers in the agricultural and non-formal sectors, estimated 24 million people. | 8,640 | | 13 | Establish a pension fund, with government contribution, for all non-formal workers | 22,000 | | 14 | Promote creative design in goods and services. | 20,000 | | 15 | Build high-speed train between China-Thailand-Malaysia. | 380,000 | | 16 | Develop Laem Chabang Port to become a Harbour City with high-speed train and logistic network between Bangkok-Laem Chabang-Rayong. | 100,000 | | 17 | Develop tourism industry along the southern seaboard. | 10,000 | | 18 | Provide broadband, 3G and internet access to every community nationwide. | 8,000 | | 19 | Develop irrigation and water supply services | 300,000 | | 20 | Construct 12 rail transit systems in Bangkok and peripheral area | 250,000 | | Total | 1,564,300 |
Pheu Thai Party
| Policy | Est. Budget/Loss
[million Baht] | | 1 | Extend farmers’ debt relief program for people whose maximum debts are 500,000 Baht to 5 years, and 5 Million Baht to 10 years. (Outstanding loans by the Agriculture Bank are currently at 600,000 Million Baht at average interest of 7% per annum). | 210,000 | | 2 | Construct 10 mass transit lines in Bangkok and periphery. Passenger fare is to be at 20 Baht per journey. | 250,000 | | 3 | Construct rail transport in Bangkok suburbs | n.a. | | 4 | Develop high-speed train line between Nakorn Ratchasrima-Rayong-Chantaburi, totaled 260 km. (Investment cost is approx. 300 million Baht per kilometer) | 78,000 | | 5 | Extend Airport Link service to Pattaya. Investment cost is approx. 80,000 Baht per kilometer. | n.a. | | 6 | Build the Land Bridge project in the southern region. | 100,000 | | 7 | Suvarnabhumi Airport to be an aviation hub. | 73,000 | | 8 | Build an irrigation system in 25 river basins. | 400,000 | | 9 | Increase the village fund to give 1 Million baht to each village, approximately 80,000 villages. | 80,000 | | 10 | Refinance personal debt not exceeding than 500,000 Baht to 3 years and restructure debts of 500,000-1,000,000 Baht. | 10,000 | | 11 | National Public Health Program | 130,000 | | 12 | Increase starting monthly salary for bachelor degree graduates to 15,000 Baht. (Currently there are approximately 400,000 graduates annually and their starting salary is 10,600 Baht per month.) | 704 | | 13 | Increase minimum wage to 300 Baht per day. | n.a. | | 14 | Reduce corporate tax from 30% to 25%. | 70,000 | | 15 | Eliminate national poverty within 4 years. | n.a. | | 16 | Provide farmers with credit cards. (There are approx. 5.8 million households are in the agricultural sector and they need a credit line of approximately 30,000 Baht per crop.) | 174,000 | | 17 | Expand rice-pledging program to cover 100% of annual yield or approx. 30 million tons against currently 7-8 million tons under the program.) | 450,000 | | 18 | Provide a tablet PC to all school students. | | | Total | 2,025,704 |
Chart Pattana Phue Pandin Party
| Policy | Est. Budget/Loss
[million Baht] | | 1 | Rice pledging program, or
Price guarantee program |
225,000
50,000 | | 2 | Loans to stabilize agriculture products | n.a. | | 3 | Refinancing program for market garden farmers | 42,000 | | 4 | Increase agricultural loan from actual 400,000 million Baht to 650,000 million Baht. | 650,000 | | 5 | Set up Cooperative Bank to promote production of fuel from agricultural products. | 1,000 | | 6 | Grant SME loan of 1 million Baht at 0% interest rate for 3 years. | 120,000 | | 7 | Construct 5 regional motorways, total 800 kilometers | 80,000 | | 8 | Construct regional dual track high speed train. | 2,000,000 | | 9 | Deep sea port project | 100,000 | | 10 | A saving account with 8% interest for every child. Each account shall get a monthly state contribution of 900 Baht. | 8,640 annually | | 11 | Grant a state subsidy of 3 Baht per liter for benzene in order to retain its selling price at 35 Baht per liter OR | 1,800 monthly | | 12 | Retain diesel price at 30 baht per liter. | 750 monthly | | Total | 3,279,190 |
Bhum Jai Thai Party
| Policy | Est. Budget/Loss
[million Baht] | | 1 | Reduce VAT to 2 percent. | 150,000 | | 2 | Give all village volunteers a monthly allowance of 600 Baht. | 14,951 | | 3 | Start an Employment Fund | n.a. | | 4 | Build athletics training center. | n.a. | | 5 | Provide the Provincial Tourist Development Fund of 100 million Baht for each province. | 7,600 | | 6 | Provide a paddy rice price guarantee at 20,000 Baht per ton. | 600,000 | | 7 | Provide agricultural land for 1 million people. | n.a. | | 8 | Provide irrigation system for every farm. | 400,000 | | 9 | Promote rubber planting in the north and northeastern regions | 3,974 | | 10 | Asphalt all roads | 39,900 | | Total | 1,216,425 |
Chart Thai Pattana Party
| Policy | Est. Budget/Loss
[million Baht] | | 1 | Provide housing loan at 1% interest to 45,000 households with 10 year repayment term | 3,375 | | 2 | Reduce the price of each eco-car and pick-up trucks by 100,000 Baht each | 55,000 | | 3 | Build infrastructure investment project. | 5,000,000 | | 4 | Develop water sources and irrigation system. | 1,700,000 | | 5 | Provide Agricultural Security Fund and Agricultural TV station. | n.a. | | 6 | Provide a monthly allowance of 1,000 Baht to each agricultural volunteer in every village. | 946 | | 7 | Provide special economic zone to promote tourism. | 100,000 | | 8 | Increase monthly pension for senior citizen from 500 to 1,000 Baht | 78,000 | | 9 | Develop sport fields in 7,254 sub-districts at 12 million Baht each. | 87,048 | | 10 | Provide free lunch for all students | 10,800 | | Total | 7,035,167 |
All of these policies were criticized by economists for their effect on the economy as well as for budgetary and feasibility constraints. Comments were also directed at the lack of main national policies such as foreign policy, or education, finance and logistics, which are necessary to promote sustainable development and national prosperity.
Arkhom Termpittayapisith, Secretary-General of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board said that campaign promises seemed to be only slightly different from each other’s, with all focusing on improving living standards by reducing household expenditures and increasing income. There is no information on their feasibility, which depends on resources particularly the budget. Thai budget aims to be balanced in 5 years, or by 2015, therefore, investment expenditure must be limited to 300,000-400,000 million Baht or 17-18 percent of the budget. This figure is equivalent to state enterprises’ entire annual budget, which includes income from loans and co-investment with private sectors. Since increases in minimum wage and salary significantly impact on production costs leading to increased prices, consultations with other stakeholders and market sectors are necessary; it is not a decision to be made by the government alone.
Dr. Pripol Koomsup, from the Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University cited Greece as an example of over-implemented populist policies and social security programs. When Greece public debt rose to 158% of GDP, the country could not repay its debts and had to seek financial aids from European Community and the IMF. This resulted in reduced public sector employment and social securities, the sale of state-enterprises and street protests.
Dr. Banlu Siriphanit, Chairman of the Foundation of the Thai Gerontology Research and Development said political party campaign promises do not pay sufficient consideration to senior citizens who need career development, long-term health-care, social security and guaranteed pensions.
Prof. Dr. Sutthichai Jitapunkul, a board member of the National Older Persons Commission said 15 percent of the eligible voters are senior citizens, therefore, public policy must clearly addressed 4 aspects:- Promoting and supporting families to take care of members who are disabled senior citizens.
- Promoting and developing a mechanism to guarantee income for senior citizens such as a change from a monthly allowance to equal pension for all seniors.
- Providing life-long education programs for senior citizens.
- Assigning local administration authorities to be responsible for taking care of senior citizens.
He proposed an increase in VAT from the current 7 percent to 10 percent so 1 percent can be used to take care of senior citizens, and 2 percent for health care programs.
Minimum wage increase in BMA
On 16th June, the Bangkok Minimum Wage Sub-committee has tentatively set a minimum wage increase for workers in the capital at 5-9 THB and will finally decide on 28th June. It is anticipated that the final figure will be submitted for the Bangkok Minimum Wage Committee approval on 6th July.
Currently minimum wage in Bangkok Metropolitan and its periphery is 215 Baht per day. The figure was just increased from 205-206 Baht at the beginning of the year when new minimum wages were applied nationwide. A study on minimum wages disclosed that while 222 Baht is a moderate rate, 235 Baht can provide a sufficient living standard.
In February 2011, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board suggested minimum wage should be raised to 300 Baht within 2 years. Political parties supported this in their campaign promises. Democrat Party proposed a raise of 25 percent and Phue Thai 300 Baht nationwide.
Free bus-train rides continue
On 30th June, the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) Board re-extended the free-ride program for another 4 months until 30th September 2011. The program was started by the Democrat administration to ease economic problems and a subsidy was paid directly to the SRT.
Meanwhile, the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority also extended the free bus program for another 6 months until 31st December 2011.
An outfit to commemorate HM 84th birthday
On 7th June, the Cabinet resolved a proposal for civil servants to wear an outfit affix with the symbol of His Majesty the King 84th birthday. The outfit should be worn once in a week until the commemoration ends in December. The Ministry of Culture is assigned to work on details provided that natural or local material such as Thai silk suitable for tropical climate would be used.
Registrating rootless persons
Somchai Charoen-Umnuaisuke, Director General of the Office of Welfare Promotion, Protection and Empowerment of Vulnerable Groups, Ministry of Social Development and Human Security disclosed that 300-400 people living in Bangkok have registered with the Ministry under the Rootless-People Registration Program, launched firstly in Bangkok before expanded countrywide. After confirming their evidence those who registered would get their first identification card, which entitled them to basic social benefits similar to all Thais.
A study was carried out on rootless people living in and out of state and privately owned welfare homes. Monks and novices in Buddhist Temples were also included. They are divided into 3 groups;- People who did not know their parents or were abandoned,
- People without ID cards,
- People born in Thailand before 18th January 2005.
Somchai Charoen-Umnuaisuke cited a 70-year old woman who had no access to social security since she had neither a birth certificate nor an identification card. Another example was a skillful carpenter who could not be permanently employed since he also had no ID card.
However, this registration program does not apply to aliens legal or illegal, since they are covered by human rights regulations, which entitled them to basic benefits except those restricted to Thai nationals, such as voting.
Alcohol causes broken homes
Quoting a study done by Assoc. Prof. Ronachai Kongsakon, Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Dr.Siriwat Tiptaradol, Deputy Permanent Secretary, Office of Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Public Health said that a family member who drinks alcohol is four times more likely to cause domestic violence, which leads to a broken home. The Department of Public Administration, Ministry of Interior, reported that there were 100,420 divorces in 2007, three times the number in 1987. The main cause was violence from alcohol.
Thai children have no immunity against media
During a workshop on media rating, Dr. Suriyadeo Tripathi, Director of National Institute for Child and Family Development said that today parents do not have enough time for their children and some are incapable of communication skills. Children are more likely to turn to the media for comfort, particularly to prime-time soap operas. These frequently have inappropriate scenes or content for children too young to distinguish between reality and make-belief. Therefore, they are most at risk amongst groups of viewers.
A study done in 2010 on children in 76 provinces revealed that:- Thoughtfulness amongst children is declining.
- Only 34 percent of the studied group would be willing to do good, but not publicly.
- They cannot see through the media, and 50 percent of them have no immunity against bad media.
- They have no interest in local knowledge or culture.
Somchai Sienglai, Permanent Secretary to the Culture Ministry said the ministry would try to educate the public about media rating and encourage civic sectors to be aware of the problem, since public responsibility was better than legal measures.
University graduates most unemployed
The National Statistics Office reported that the latest unemployment figure as of April 2011 was 0.8 percent, or equivalent to 285,000 persons. They are divided into services and trading sector: 88,000, production: 69,000, and agriculture: 42,000.
Amongst these, 199,000 had been previously employed, and 86,000 never been employed.
Unemployment amongst bachelor degree graduates came top at 79,000, upper levels of secondary school 66,000, lower levels of secondary school, 52,000, primary school 49,000, and without any schooling or lower than primary school 39,000.
37.37 million people are employed nationwide, 12.66 million in agriculture and 24.71 million in non-agriculture.
It should be noted that vocational degree graduates are the least unemployed. Quoting from a seminar on directions in developing the workforce to serve the 2015 ASEAN market, held on 8th June 2011, Dr. Sompong Jit-radap, board member of the Quality Learning Foundation said that there are 400,000 new university graduates each year and only 100,000 able to get jobs. In contrast to 90-100 percent of vocational graduates being employed.
Thailand’s educational policy, therefore, must be reconsidered and vocational education pushed into the mainstream instead of basic education. With ASEAN free labor movement enforceable in 2015, an influx of workers from ASEAN countries can be anticipated. Students from many countries are currently learning Thai and some are studying in Thai vocational schools. For those who think they can find jobs abroad, they must be capable of both English and local languages.
From : http://www.fpps.or.th
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