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ͧ͹ҤҧԷʵлȨҡʹ1

͹Ҥѡ١ӨӡѴ觷͹ ѺáзӨҡʹյлѨغѹͧ 觷١˹ҡվѧ˹ ͧѧǹͧһѨਡؤӹҨ㹡èѴ͹Ҥҡö§Ѵõͧ㹻Ѩغѹ 觼ͧ÷Ӥ͹Ҥ ੾дѺҤ 觷ŵ᷺դӤѭ͡Եͧ ѹʹ㨡Ѻþҡó ӹ·ԧѡ÷ҧԷʵ

Դҧµѧ᷺ءԵ Ѻҡ֡͹ҤҧẺἹѡ觷Ҵ šءҧ§֧ѹ աúѹ֡ŢҧջԷҾ õѴԹ㨵дѺǹ仨֧дѺѡ觼šзšз觵ҧ кѧиҵ âҴ˹ѡ㹤ѹ§ҧ蹤 ѧ٭¤ö㹡äǺѹǹͧ˵ءó¹ŧʹº㹡ҧἹطѺûѺǷա šҫѺ͹ҡõդ͹Ҥҧ֡§ҡҡԵ觨 㹻Ѩغѹʵͧ ͹Ҥ֡ (Futures Studies) öµͺʹͧͧҹ

͹Ҥ֡ͧ͹ҤդѺ͹觷ҡ˹͹ҤŨҡáзʹյ ૿ ѡ͹Ҥ֡Ҫк öӤ͹Ҥ ٻç 繵ǵѴԹ㹡þԨóҤͧԴ˵ءó˵ءó˹͹Ҥ



ҡҾʴҧ Ҩѧࡵ繨ҡ Preponsterous Futures ¶֧͹Ҥ ¡ҧ ôѺͧǧҷԵ͹ .. 2600 ͡¡ԡ Ҫâͧա 1 բҧ˹ 繵 Possible Futures ͹ҤҨԴѡ١ͧ͡ʵ§Ѻ˵ءóҾͧ㹻Ѩغѹ ٭ѹͧҡäкҴ ͡¡ԡԹ˹ʡԹҧͧš Plausible Futures ͹ҤͧԴͷӡҧ˵ռŨҡͧ㹻Ѩغѹ) ԴкҴͧù (COVID-19) ͧ͡㹻 Projected Futures ͹ҤҴóҨԴҧ͹繼šзµçҡáз㹻Ѩغѹ ÿ鹵ǢͧҴ㹡ѷúԹѧҡ¡ԡҵҡûԴȷš ͡õ蹵ҡ鹴ҹèѡǴѧԴ¾ԺѵԷҧҵ Probable Futures ͹ҤԹҨԴԧҡʶԵԤӹdz͡ʢͧԴСäҴ๢ͧ㹻Ѩغѹ) ͡ʷŢ㹡÷١ 1 ١ 1 ûԹ§͡ŧع Preferable Futures ͹Ҥ֧ʧ ͹ҤͧԴ) á˹šèҡûСͺ ͡õا෾ҹͧʹž

͹Ҥͧʪ͹ҤѺþԨóҵʹ ͡ҧἹ鹤͹ҤٻẺ˹ҧ ҡҵͧõդШҧҡ͡õѴԹҧٻ ͹ҤӤѭ͹Ҥѡ 3P (Possible Futures, Probable Futures, Preferable Futures) ¤èѴӴѺ͡ԨóҪԴͧ͹Ҥ֡ѡù ֧Ѻ͹ͧԺͧ ФǴ㹡͹ (ѵ) ͧͧ÷Ҩҡ÷Ӥ㹾šѧзѾҡ÷˹§ҹͺؤ˹öͤǺѴ÷ȷҧ͹Ҥ ͺҷ 駹 ҤûԹѺ͹ͧԺͧüҹþԨóҵ÷ǢͧѺͧªԴ, դö㹡ҧ¹ŧҡ͹, ѹҧҧ, ͡ʷԴ٧͵˹, дѺǴ㹡¹ŧҧ, ¹ŧѹǹ, еö觼Դ¹ŧ㹷ȷҧ˹ҧ

ͧ÷Ѻ͹㹺ԺդѺ͹ Ǥ ԵԷӡѴ ѹҧõ ԷԾ㹡ҧ¹ŧԧ֡㹡¹ŧѡԴ鹺 ѡյԴ㹷ء¹ŧ (highly disrupted with limited areas of drivers in highly changed environment) Ҩҡ÷Ӥ Possible Futures / Probable Futures Ǩ֧ͧ Preferable Futures ͧҡͧҹʶҹó¹ŧʹеͧ͡Ѻҷ٧㹡˹ȷҧͧͧ ѡ͹Ҥ֡¡ԸաͧẺҡǨ͹Ҥ Ѿ ͹ҤԧǨ (Explorative Futures) ͧͷͺ⨷Ѻ͹ҤѧǤ ͧ㹡äҴóǧ˹ (Forecasting Tools) Trend Impact Analysis, Explorative Scenarios, General Morphological Analysis, Wild Cards, Systems Thinking ẺػҧЪѺ ѡɳСͧҾ͹ҤѧԸաͧҡҧ͡ѧҧ (Outside-In Approach) ͷҧ ҧͧ÷Ըաù ѷ пԻ 繺ѷ鹡þѲҹѵҧ෤ ͺ⨷Ѻͧâͧѧ¹ŧҧǴ մö੾зҧͧͧ㹡觢ѹѺҴҧ෤շѡդҷ Դ鹵ʹ

㹷ҧѺѹ ҡͧ÷ҧԺդѺ͹٧ Ǥ ժԴҡԵ ѹҧ٧ ԷԾ㹡ҧ¹ŧԧҧ㹡¹ŧѡԴҡ յԴ鹹 (scarcely disrupted with diverse drivers in slowly changing environment) ադö㹡á˹ȷҧ͹Ǣͧͧҧҡ ͧ͹Ҥҡ֡ Preferable Futures ͹Ҥ֧ʧͧͧǨ֧ͧѺ͡仢ҧ͡ Possible Futures Probable Futures ͧҡͧҹդö㹡ûѺ٧ ѡҾ㹡õͧѺõҧ ͡á˹ȷҧͧͧͺѺѺش ش͹ Шش׹ ͧ ѡ͹Ҥ֡¡͹Ҥҡͧѧ ͹Ҥԧ÷Ѵҹ (Normative Futures) ¶֧͹ҤҨҡ÷Ӥ㨤ͧ ͧ Фҹ˹ͧͧ ͧͷѺ֡͹ҤٻẺ ͧ㹡äҴóѧ (Backcasting Tools) Vision building, Normative Scenarios, Futures Workshop Ǥͧ͡ ͹Ҥԧ÷Ѵҹ繡ͧҡҧҧ͡ (Inside-Out Approach) ͷҧ Royal Dutch Shell ˹㹺ѷԸաù㹡֡ҩҡȹͧͧ㹪ǧ͹Դԡĵѹš㹻 1973 ҧἹҧ觾ѧҹ᷹ ҡ觾ѧҹع¹

͹ 觷ʹ㨴ҹ͹Ҥ֡Ҥ֡ͤ ͹ҤШ١ԴѺٻẺ͹ҤǪҭҴó ͹Ҥ¹ŧҡѨغѹ͹㹷ȷҧҡѧԧ͹ЫѺ͹ (complex and complicated) ͧ͹Ҥзҷ仢ͧͧ鹨ҡ餹ͧҧҡҡ Ҩͧö§ͧҾ͹Ҥҧҡҡҹ

ǹ (Wendell Bell) ѡԨ¼ҧҡҹӤѭͧ͹Ҥ֡Ҫ There are no past possibilities and there are no future facts ͹Ҥ֡Ҩ֧ͧ͡÷ӹ ͧẺ 觷վѵж١͹ʹҨҡõҧѧ ѡ͹Ҥ֡Ҩ֧ͧդ״ ͧ Դҧ ͡¹ŧѡԴҧǴ ͧͧҹ͹Ҥ֡ö繵ǪҷӤ㨡Ѻ˵ءóҨ˵ءó͹Ҥ 駹 ҡ͸Ժ¶֧ͧͧ͢͹Ҥ֡㹺 Ҩзҹ㹡ҹҹԹ ֧͹حҵ͸Ժͧͧѡ͹Ҥ֡Ԩ֡ͧ͹Ҥ㹺

͹Ҥ֡ҡѧ˹ͧҧҹԪҡ÷Ѻʹҧҧҧ ҹ·ҹҨ鹪ԹѺ͹Ҥ֡Һҧҡ¼ҹҧ ÷ҧԪҡйԵҧͧᢹҧ Ѻ͹Ź͵վ ͧҧҹ͹Ҥ֡Ҥ͹ҧѺ͹ѧ㹻 ÷Ӥ㨨ҡ鹰ҹ֧觷ӤѭТҴ㹡õʹͧʹѺѺԺͧ 觹ʹͧǤͧ鹷ǡѺ͹Ҥ֡ҷ㨧¨ҡʺóͧ¹ѧ֡Ҵҹ͹Ҥ֡㹻ȿԹŹ ѧҤ繻ªѺѡԴѡҧἹҧҡ¹Ф


ҧ´ Ա
ҧ´ Ա ѡ֡һԭ ɰʵ ҹ͹Ҥ֡ FFRC (Finland Futures Research Center) ȿԹŹ, ԭҵ (.. 2562) ʵ ͡ԵԷФѹ Է¹ѹҹ ȭ


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Bell, Wendell (1997) Foundations of futures studies: human science for a new era. Vol. 2 Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.

Minkkinen, Matti (2019) Overview of the futures field [PowerPoint presentation]. FUTU1
Foundation of Futures Studies. retrieved 9.9.2019

Minkkinen, Matti (2019) Explorative futures studies [PowerPoint presentation]. FUTU1
Foundation of Futures Studies retrieved 16.9.2019

Minkkinen, Matti (2019) Normative futures studies [PowerPoint presentation]. FUTU1
Foundation of Futures Studies retrieved 23.9.2019

Vecchiato, Riccardo (2012) Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol. 79, 436447

Voros, Joseph (2003) A generic foresight process framework. Foresight. Vol. 5 (3), 10 21.
 


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