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ҹҹͧ ͧ͹šǪ»·öǺкҴͧѴ繼 ½´͹Ҥ稹ԴҡҨԧҨѧФö㹡÷ӧҹͧѰ˹§ҹҤѰ ੾ҧç Ѵ ͧзǧҸóآСͺѤдѺҹӹǹ֧ 800,000 Ƿ駻 ͷ˹ҷѧǹѺҢͧѴҧջԷҾ з辺աµʹ 6 ͹ҹ

ҡͺ˹ҷѤ͹¨ӹǹ˹ ǡҡѺ͡ҷҹ ǡһԺѵ˹ҷ ͧҡҴʹѺʹعҡҧ ǡѺ駡ý֡ͺ Ţ ֧ͧͧ㹡ûͧѹѹ¨ҡäѴС

ҡ͹ѺӴѺ˵ءóкҴͧѴͻ»2546 繵 о ҧ§㹡͹ѧҹ ҡѺŷçѺ繨ԧѺҸóա ҷ ҡ¢ͧӹǹҡԴҡäҧԹѴ 繵 駷 .è Ի¨ѹ 觤ѵᾷ ׹ѹ ǨѴѧѴä ҵ͹Ȩԡ¹ ͸ԺաѵҺ

ԧ 㹡äǺѴ ԴҡҭҴͧЪҪ· 60 ҹҧҡ ǡöѴ͹ǧѹӤѭͧʨҡ褹ѹǧ ˵оǡҵѴԹ㨷ҡŷǡ ᷹͢ŨҡѰ͡ѡ١ѰǺ ӹǹԴ֧ͨ§ 17 ªԵ 12 ҡҾǡŧ ӹǹªԵеͧ¡ҹաҵҧ͹

ҧ 餹ӹǹ 60 ҹ ᷺繼ǪҭҹкҴԷ դѴ ադöҹúèѴдѺ ˵㴾ǡҨ֧öѴáѺԡĵѴкҴͧҧҭҴ

Ǵա

ͷҡõѴԹ¤ӹǹҡաҡͺ餹ǵѴԹ᷹ 餹鹨繼դö ʹѧҪҹҹ ѺѺҧ·š㹪ǧԺҹͧ

͹ͧ;鹰ҹͧкͺЪҸԻ·餹ǹ˭ͧšѺкͺûͧշش §ҹ ʹѧԴǷҧúèѴҧ ǹ鹡áШӹҨ ÷ӧҹ繷 С¹ѹա 觵ʹԺҹ ෤ԤèѴҹ١黯ԺѵԨԧ¼餹ҧ ҡ·š ФǤҡѾ٨ǤԴ繨ԧ

㹢ǡѹͧ ѧáзҡ·觺͡ 餹ǹ˭ѧҼͼӹҭҡ¤öѴԹ᷹ǹա

͡駵кͺЪҸԻ 餹ҡŧṹ§ѺѤ÷赹ͧդöҡش ͡ت кت觡 ͡ѡԳзѡԳ觡Ҫǹ 繵

ҤáԨ蹡ѹ աùӷɮաúèѴẺѹҧ 㹤繨ԧ ӹҨõѴԹͧǹ˭ѧШءѺ§褹 㹰ҹмǪҭҹúèѴ ҹѺѺѺͨҡ餹ǹ˭йͧ͡ 駹´ҡ§мŵͺ᷹ͧǡҷᵡҧҡѡҹҧԧ

駹з駹 ѧӤѭѺäҼҡ¤سزԤسѵҨѴ᷹ ᷹ӤѭѺúèѴûѭѹµͧ 觡繷һҴ ҡҼ餹ǹ˭öѹѴա 繵ͧ觾Ҽçسز褹 㹷ҧçѹ ҡҤǹ˭ö 蹹 ǡҨФѴ͡դ觡ѹҧ

šդѺѺ͹¹ŧҧǴǴѧ蹻Ѩغѹ 繡ҡ觷ЪѴ ӡ˹ʶҹó ʶҹó˹ǼӔ ա˹ Χѹ еӷժöԧ ¤Ҥ稢ͧʹյСѹդ͹Ҥ

Ҿ٨ǡѺ

ԧ ѧöѹѴáѺѭաǪҭѴ᷹ ٧ҡä鹾觵ǨԧöѴա

¡ɰշѺҧ٧¹ ¡÷ԢԷҨҡ¡÷ȹͧѰԡҷժ ҡɰԹҹ ҧŤ 40 ҹҷ 觢ѹеͧͺӶ͡ӵͺ١ͧҡӵͺ

ҡҺӵͺ觢ѹԷԷ͡ 3 ҧ 1. ѴӵͺԴ͡ 2 ͡ʵͺ١ 50/50 2. 觢ѹ繤Ѵͧ 3. ʹʶԵԢͧͧǹ˭͡˹

ǹ˭ѡԴҷҧͧ͡;觼Ҩ繷ҧ͡շش ԧѺ蹹 ʶԵ ö¶١§ 65% ǹ˭ͧ觵ͺ١֧ 91%

稢ͧ : Ǵա

ѷš͵駢ͻ 2541 㹢й ѷ ͼͧҴ䫵Ң ѧҡ§աš纤ҷդҡشͧš ͧҡԷҾ㹡äҢŷǴж١ͧͧâͧ٧纤觷

ͧѧ觡Ҩͧ ٵáäӹdz ྨԧ ͵駡ŤԴ ᷹ͧ͸Ժ ྨԧ͡ѡɳͧ繻ЪҸԻ䫵 Ǥ ྨԧҡäԡҡ˹˹ (ྨ) ѧա˹˹觢ͧ˹觤º͹Ѻŧṹ§˹§ ˹㴷Ѻṹ§٧ж˹ҷӤѭ˹ҷṹ ˹ҷѺṹ§٧شж١ѴªѹѺ鹢ͧ ա˹ ԷҾͧԴҡҴͧ餹ǹ˭ҡǪҭ褹

ǩҴ?

͹ءóշ褹ӹǹҡ觡öҤ觷ش շҧ褹 ¤öҵѴ觡ᾷӹҭҹä 㹡óշդӵͺ ӵͺѴաҼ

㹡óի繻ѭҷդѺѺ͹Ѻ¹ʹ ҡä㴤˹觷Һӵͺ դӵͺҡԹҤԺǨӵͺ ҧ ˹ͧº¹Ѿ ʹ¤觻ѧҧ лͧѹкҴͧѴ˹ҷҨöԴͨҡ褹ҧ ԡĵɰԨͧʺͺ˹ҨԴ Ѻҧ ѭҷҡ͡äҤӵͺҹ ǹ繻ѭҷ褹ӹǹҡöաҫ͡ѺǪҭ 駹¤ҤԴ繢ͧôҷҹǪҭդҤѺѧ ҡõѴԹѹҭҴ¼餹ǹ˭ӵͧСͺ仴¢ԨóҳǹǢͧҪԡ

Է?

Դǹ˭´ ءѹѧ᷺ءдѺдѺ ͧ 件֧дѺš ǹ仴þѴûЪдͧҧ 䢻ѭ ѧ ǡѺѭ ͡ٹ鹷ء Ƿ Ф˹ͧõԴŧҹ仵Ἱҷµ ա˹繡á˹Ἱҹշҧ繨ԧ

ҭҴͧӹǹҡԴѺҡ˵ػѨ ӤѭҴ 1.ᵡҧҡ¢ͧ餹Т 2. ТͧҪԡ㹡õѴԹ 3.áШӹҨТѺҪԡ

᷺ءǷաûЪɴԹҹ ҴسѵԷǶ֧㴢˹觡Ҵ·ء

ᵡҧҡ¹鹷ǹѺªҡͧͧѭҷúǹءء 駷Ҫԡ͡ ТͧҪԡ㹡õѴԹ㨷աԨóѭѹҧ˵ؼ ͧѹĵԡҵѹ СáШӹҨТŹ 觼ҪԡöŷշҧջԷҾ Դûҹҹѹͧµç ѭҷشöçشЩѺ

ҧͤҹѹ ҹѺѹ ?

͹͡Ҿҹѹ觷繻ªѧǹ˭ ҡҡԹ ûйջйѹö䢻ѭ з觡繡ѺäԴҧӵҧͧҪԡ Ϳѧзӵʵҹ Ҿ蹹Դ ѧ鹡еѹ¨ҡĵԡش ҡ蹹Դ鹨ҧ

ѡԵԷ¡ҹѹش觹 äԴẺ (GROUPTHINK) 㹡÷ͧͧ͹ ͪ 50 շ ҾŴӹǹ 12 ҾѤ 8 ءҾҾ鹵çǴ 4 ѧҡѤٻҾѹ ǡҨеͧºº鹵çҹشͧҾѺ鹵çҧա 3 ТҹӵͺФ鹵çդǡѺ鹵çҹҡش

ԧѤ 7 8 繼㹡÷ͧ ѤäǷͧҹӵͺ繤ش·˹ٷͧǨԧ Ѥ 7 ١ҹӵͺԴӵͺǡѹ 㹷ͺ鹷§Ѻ鹵ç觫ѹѺͧ鹷§ش ˹ͧ١ͧͺԴ§ǹ˭ 繤ӵͺԴ ÷ͧ٨ҡõѴԹ㨢ͧռŵ͡õѴԹ㨢ͧҧ

ա÷ͧ˹ ͪ ¹ŧ÷ͧ§硹 Ǥ Ѥ§ 6 ҹӵͺԴ 餹˹觢ҹӵͺ١ͧ š÷ͧ¹ҧ˹ѧ Ǥ ѴǹӹǹͺԴ§ǹ˭ŴǺŧҧѴਹ

÷ͧѧ ˹ҧ˹觷Ҿѧҹѹش觹͡ҳŢ÷ᵡҧҡѺѧ

ػ

ҹ ҡǡѺʶҹóͧäкҴѴԴ㹻Ȩչ䫵觷š ŹҧԧҨҡ˹ѧ;⻫ع (Boxun) ˹ѧ;͡˹觢ͧչ Ѻѹ 25 Ҥȡ к ŪԧռªԵǨҡѴ֧ 121 駹 ҧèչѧ׹ѹ§ҹкҴͧѴ褹㹾鹷ѧ þʹҹҹ

ҡ§ҹªԵͧ餹Ūԧ繨ԧ ҡѺҤաҹѡšеͧʺ¾ԺѵäкҴعçشա˹ ¤ ѹѴͺѧ׺ҹѧ ¹ҡõѺѴ駡͹͹ Ҥþ觾ҤҭҴͧǡҡѹͧա


***ʧǹԢԷ Թ
***Դ 䫵͡ͺ http://www.nokkrob.org


ԧö

1. WHO praised Thailand For Its Control of Bird Flu, www.mcot.org
2. Bird Flu Remains a Very Elusive Foe óҸԡ˹ѧ;๪, 9/05/05
3. ҤѡҹͧûԴŔ ت ԧപ ˹ѧ;Ԫ, 02/02/2547
4. Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza WHO ѹ 19/05/2005
5. The Wisdom of Crowds James Surowiecki, ˹ 4, 2003
6. The Wisdom of Crowds James Surowiecki, ˹ 16, 2003
7. The Wisdom of Crowds James Surowiecki, ˹ 16, 2003
8. The Wisdom of Crowds James Surowiecki, ˹ 21, 2003
9. Six Degree Duncan J Watts, ˹ 207-8, 2003
10. The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki, ˹ 39, 2003


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